Real Estate Insanity

My post to the yahoo message boards...

There has never been a better time to sell a house. Seriously think about it, unless you love the house, bought it 10+ years ago, and/or want to be there a long time (5-10 more years).

Because yes, while there is a shortage of land in CA, realize that a crash in real estate in the rest of the country will bring CA down too. How? Because we spent our way out of the recession significantly by letting people buy SUVs with cash from refi's. It's all connected - if housing reality hits the rest of the nation, it will hurt the entire nation's (and world's, really) economy meaning less hiring and less people prepared to spend $3000+ a month on a mortgage even in CA.

I mean, even now here in the Bay Area, it used to be that if a house went for rent, there'd be a line of folks with credit apps. I was there. I've talked with landlords. That doesn't happen anymore. We're not seeing a huge number people moving in (at least in the upper income bracket). We're seeing the backlog of people who've always wanted a house empty out. Without anyone new in the pipeline, there could be a sudden drop in demand.

And yes, the stock market is not the same as the real estate market. A house is tangible and real and useful. BUT prices for houses or stocks are only as high as the believed value of the people who buy them. There is a warped, group mentality right now that says "gee, I could (barely) afford that payment. Look how fast houses are selling! This party will never end, so I can't lose!". And yet there is the other mentality that says "This is insane and the party will be over someday and it will drop hard". This is the same dichotomy the stock market had. As soon as the market turned the corner, and people saw indeed that the nay-sayers were right, there was a panic. Psychologically and economically, I think we have the same 'perfect storm' in the real estate market.

Balrogs' Wings

sent to the Encyclopedia of Arda, in response to this

I find the Balrog Wing discussion stimulating, but the deep 'engineering' analysis somewhat misapplied. Lord of the Rings exists as a created work of art. As in all art, it exists to transmit thoughts and feelings of its creator to its audience. Tolkien clearly wants the reader to imagine a seemingly feeble old wizard standing on an ancient, abandoned bridge boldly facing an ominous, evil, ancient enemy who not only approaches but begins to engulf his adversary. The metaphorical use of 'wings' clearly succeeds.

Now art also goes beyond transmitting the precise intention of the author. Sometimes things 'leak out' of the creator's (sub)consciousness and allow us to explore the thoughts behind the thoughts. Some artists even build upon this semi-intentional output, like Stephen King in the Dark Tower series, where King describes the process of the story carrying him as opposed to the other way round. At first, pinning this attribute to the vast, meticulously created Middle-Earth universe seems blasphemous, but at least to some degree, according to Kocher's analysis in Master of Middle Earth, some critical parts of the tale did flow this way, even Aragorn's role...

And I believe the wings 'leaked out' in that in Tolkien's mind's eye as he wrote the famous passage, he envisioned the Balrog having physical wings. Otherwise, as you said, it is indeed a clumsy metaphor, and I am far more prepared with Tolkien to accept an engineering inconsistency than a slip in literary form.

Plus, the gap leaves us room for an unsolvable puzzle, which we should simply relish in and of itself. My pet theory: Tolkien's obvious and stated connection with Christianity is again reflected here with (fallen) angelic imagery.

Lastly, when the Fellowship of the Ring film came out, a new reader of Lord of the Rings, Chris Benschoter, insightfully pointed out to me the distinct lack of blow-by-blow descriptions of action scenes. Indeed, Tolkien uses his literature as a tale and history, concerning himself much more with the Who and Why more than the What and the How. Correspondingly, it is not terribly important to know the precise details of the Balrog's form. But it is vital to know of its evil, resemblance to Melkor and intentions.

Immigration, Marxism and Wal-Mart

A Yahoo message board posting for this story

When this country started, we revolted over miniscule taxes on tea.

Since then our country became socialist in every way, so much so we simply accept it but claim where' the same democratic place where the American Dream can still happen.

Every human being in this country receives or gives money to another person. Like it or not, we are, by law (enforced by courts and guns), required to pay for old, poor, imprisoned, sick, unproductive and lazy people in our country and elsewhere. Taxes are not optional. And, because there are more poor than rich who vote, it is impossible to go back to a more self-reliant country.

I have 2 problems, then.

First, people with money can do nothing but hope that more people get more productive to lighten our burden. I have 1 vote to express what I want to do with my tax dollars, same as someone who pays none. And worse, it is been conditioned in our society that we are to pay (and I hate this phrase) "our fair share", demonizing my desire to retain my money. Yes, everyone deserves a vote. But not when the vote becomes the mechanism to make my property non-sovereign. (sounds like Marxism, doesn't it?)

Second, when people, hardworking or not, invade our country and take the benefits (health care, education) but pay nothing in taxes, they (and their employers) are stealing.

So, in summary, I say you we have a choice. Either, this is a free country where everyone is free to show up, but you get nothing for free, OR, this is a country that takes care of you but you have to get on the treadmill like everyone else. Don't tell me George Washington and the Irish are the same as immigrants today; they were in the former situation; we are in the latter.

How can low wage earners really complain?

In response to this story...

(honestly, while what I said is true, I think I veered pretty far off the original point!)

Unions and low-wage earners seem so suprized when corporate America cuts their costs. Why do you think that is? Because it has become so expensive to do business in America. Why? because so much of every dollar you spend goes to fund parasitic, non productive causes such as:

1) Taxes (most of which goes to entitlements, e.g. welfare, subsidized health care, and to in general clean up the mess after our failed school system churns out losers en masse that commit crimes) 2) Insurance (largely expensive because health care providers have to make up for non-paying patients, and because of lawsuit-frenzied people wanting their 'fair share' without having to earn it) 3) Workers Comp (to pay for the people that we can't afford to or want to actually employ)

Is it any wonder that we move everything we can outside the country, that corporate America won't take risks anymore, and that the vision of a single-earner, homeowning family without a 6 figure income has vanished into myth?

Whining About State Money Shortfalls

In response to... this

This article splatters itself with vignettes, like people whining about not camping anymore because fees went up by $10. And it portrays the schools as efficient, penny pinching institutions of success limited only by dollars.

Clearly the author never spent much time in the inner workings of the beaurocracy of education in the USA. It really takes so little money to educate a child, but a good teacher is priceless. My grandfather's high school education surpassed today's college in a tiny school that never dreamed of the kind of money poured into schools today.

Instead, our budget-frenzied competition free schools waste their budgets on pools, multi-culturalism and fancy buildings, and pay teachers the minimum possible. This attracts either a decreasing number of precious few die hards, but mainly a hoard of left wing martyrs. When kids spend 8 hours a day with teacher who hate industry, successful people and Judeo-Christian values you all but eliminate any spirit of enterprise or progress in favor or a socialistic God-free worship the earth world view. These kids grow up to be financial and criminal liabilities on those fewer people who do produce and obey laws.

At the same time, the more you tax, the more parents work, making it impossible for parents to really raise their own kids. People somehow ludicrously and mistakenly think that a teacher and school system can raise kids. Parent-free raising means more evil kids in school, who do worse, get in more trouble, and scare away good teachers, and grow up to create more liability on the government.

Eventually, all this spirals into a pathetic situation where people BEG for the government to take more of the their money, and BEG for the government to take over their lives. Goodbye freedom and growth. Well, I guess this outcome is worth it to preserve a dinosaur museum in Nebraska.

RecordingIndustryDMCAComplaint

EuroUSAGasPrices

Someone loved my sig!

TT's (tanaka@cs.indiana.edu) most favorite sig of all time:
=-------------------------------------------------------------------
===== M(tm) mtm@walsh.dme.battelle.org ====
  "I turned to look, but it was gone.  I cannot put my finger on it now."
          "The ground is rich from tender care, repaid do not forget."
My mailer limits my sig to 4 lines. But ingeniously I bypassed this problem by

Bert and Ernie, OOP and Taxonomy

posted to this slashdot about this article

When I read about these attempts to come up with the perfect language to handle variations of pentagons, it reminds me of the classic 'Bert and Ernie' skit where Bert assigns Ernie the task of cleaning a pile of toys in their apartment.

After Bert's departure, Ernie decides he must first come up with a taxonomy system - first, he'll pick up the red things. Hmmm, the only red toy is a fire truck. So he puts it down. Ok, pick up the toys with wheels. Same result - only a fire truck. What about the toys with ladders? Still one toy, a fire truck.

By this time Bert, enraged, returns to find that Ernie has accomplished nothing. We can learn many things from this, but mainly...

Getting the job done is what counts, not how cleanly you do it. Devise mechanisms when it really helps get the job done, else risk making the mechanism a job in and of itself.

Californian Hypocrisy

In response to this story on the sex offender released in Soledad

How can Californians, in the most liberal of liberal states, find something like this surprising? California politically ignores and punishes thru taxation the people that make something of themselves and stay clean, and classifies the illegal immigrants/deviants/criminals 'victims' in need of 'compassion' (e.g., freedom, privileges and money).

Funny how the death penalty seems like such a cruel, terrible idea until a sex offender moves in next door.

Skyline Chili

(from http://www.beergeek.com/archives/cat_cincinnati_chili.html)

As a former Columbus OH resident and Skyline addict, I read your recipe with great interest - even as I dine on canned mail-order skyline at my San Carlos abode.

Once someone told me that a bar serving skyline-like product exists near fisherman's wharf (in San Francisco). Have you heard of this yourself?

And speaking to the person in the Florida Keys, doubtless you know about the Skyline Chili restaurants in Fort Myers and Naples Florida, no?

Lastly, perhaps we could have a west-coast Skyline Chili party where I (we?) can watch you do your magic with your carefully crafted recipe!

Ok, really lastly, the best part of making your own Skyine: often (forgive me) Skyline Chili restaurants inconsistently serve their chili; some insist on giving you super-soupy servings. When you control the kettle, you regulate the soupiness!

--matt

Mercury News Valley Transit Authority Editorial Reply

In reply to a proposed 1% tax to pay for a dying transportation system, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/news/local/5571450.htm

Peter,

Even if I did support new taxes, which I vehemently don't, I'd insist that any significant new tax (and I call 1% significant) apply towards the most important programs - teacher salaries, perhaps. To me, spending newly raised tax dollars on an underused train resembles Homer Simpson-level financial soundness. It is as if a struggling family spent its recent pay raise on shiny new wheels for its car that won't start.

I know sensibility rarely factors into discussions like this, especially when they include the 'elderly and poor' as you point out, but common sense says that if such a system cannot sustain itself it should terminate itself, outcries from activists notwithstanding. More than the money, if you send an entity the message that 'no matter how much you cost, you're too politically important to have to face normal business logic', then in fact history shows that such entities will run at increasingly higher levels on inefficiency in a never-ending pursuit of budgets. Examples: public education, tollroads, welfare.

Lastly, should against all logic such a measure pass, I would propose we measure the success of the draining of $1000 from each employee in SiValley. Yes, I know a 'success metric' flies in the face of California socialistic politics, but indeed I insist we measure what in fact we get for what we give. How many 'poor and elderly' passengers will live great new thriving lives otherwise dashed by the well-spent cool grand I gave to them. And at the same time, how many productive tax-paying jobs evaporated, probably sending another high-tech worker packing for Omaha, draining much more than $1000 from our present and future tax base?

--matt

...and I got a reply!

Hi, Matt. Thanks for your note. Sorry it's taken me a few days to get back to you.

I've gotten a lot of reaction to that column - some from people who agree, some from people who disagree. I always appreciate reader feedback and am glad you took the time to let me know how you felt. You raise some very good points.

Take care and best wishes - Peter

Peter Delevett Columnist San Jose Mercury News (408) 271 3638 www.peterdelevett.com

Majestic Movie Review

Posted to IMDB (spoilers) Loved the visuals and portrayal of post-WW2 america. As a movie buff the theatre restoration itself earned the price of the rental. Decent acting all around.

But the story doesn't completely work for me. On one hand, we have a real, concrete, supposedly historically accurate background. But we then mix this with a medically implausible accident (which has been overused in countless movies and TV plots).

The McCarthy interrogators sure seemed demonized to me - they're set up to be stupid, ruthless and ripe for Carrey's speech. They're against groups like 'bullets for bread'.

Now I didn't live thru the McCarthy era. But the movie left a bad taste in my mouth when it proclaimed that WWII vets died so that people could (among other things) support and promote communism in the USA. Communism goes against everything the USA was created for and ultimately leads to ruin (e.g. China, USSR, Cuba). Once again hollywood lionizes the left and demonizes the right.

Ironically, the rise in leftist entitlement taxes, laws, and lawyers in the USA (the antithesis of McCarthyism) has made it nearly impossible for small towns (and small theatres) to thrive - war hero depression or not!

Bowling Bacteria

Consider.

Bowling ball holes receive your sweat as you pick up the ball. Not to mention the sweat of everyone else who's used the same 15 year old loaner. Within the dark finger chambers, bacteria thrive and multiply, unchecked by an entire absence of cleaning either by you or the alley personnel. The difficulty of cleansing the awkwardly shaped passages essentially guarantees free reign!

Then, as the ball traverses the lane it exchanges filth that pours from the finger holes onto the lane with the filth already there from countless prior bowlers. Undoubtedly, these bactieria interbreed and thrive especially on trace amounts of cheese curl particulate matter and beer from your fingers now delivered to the waiting alley micro dwellers.

Lastly, you pick up your newly bacterially diversified polyurethane orb, and transfer these microbes inside yourself as you subsequently ingest hot dogs, fries and other finger foods between frames.

Think about it. Don't bowl. Lick a toilet seat instead. It's healthier.

Blake's 7 / Star Wars Evil Empire comparison

this is actually a reply to my post

From:  Frances Teagle <Frances.Teagle@nessie.mcc.ac.uk>   
To:  blake7@lysator.liu.se   
Date:  1994-01-19 15:19:29   
Subject:  Re: federation government   

  > From: mtm@walsh.dme.battelle.org (MTM 'Matt the Mentat' Walsh)
                           :
                           :
> a more probable history of the federation might be:
> 
> 1) early starflight
> 2) alien conflict or full scale earth war erupts

             ********* see later **********

> 3) Group of wealth and power seeking individuals band together behind a 
> ruthless dictator and advanced technology
> 4) This group wins the war but doesn't dismantle its war machines, instead 
> it...
> 5) build up an irresistable fighting force to control the galaxy.

****** I think you may have missed out a stage.  `Evil Empires' can
grow out of something with high ideals.  I think it likely that Nation's
Federation is based on the late Soviet Empire (via Orwell's 1984 which
definitely was), and many of the founders of communism genuinely
believed that this was the great panacea for the world's ills, only to
see it perverted by the aparatchiks (if they lived that long). It
makes a more interesting scenario than straightforward evil, and makes
it easier to place normal individuals within the context (Dr. Bellfriar
for one).

> I like Nation's portrayal of the federation because it is believable.  As much 
> as I love the Star Wars movies, the Empire in these movies doesn't make sense.  
> Except for a few brief moments in the first movie, it is a war between black 
> and white with no explanation of what the Empire is really trying to
achieve.

I tend to regard Star Wars as biblical/apocalyptic - Satan and his
minions in the battle against good. A rattling good tale with a
satisfying ending maybe, but don't look for skillful psychology in the
writing,

> What will they do after all the rebels and planets are blown up? 

Read Alexander Pope's poem "The Return of Chaos", the final line says
it all - "and universal darkness buries all." (hope I quoted that
right!)

> Whereas the 
> federation occupies, manipulates, and parasitically drains the planets it 
> controls and seeks out new ways to further control the galaxy.

Prompted by a feeling of insecurity? Remember "The Darkling Zone".

> We also see members of the federation, not as totally evil beings as seen in 
> Star Wars, but rather as rational, intelligent members who have the single flaw 
> that they use their undeniable power to take away from others.

       ____     ____
      /__        /  __   __   __   / __
     /          /  /__/ __ / /  / / /__/
    /   o      /  /__  /__/ /__/ / /__       (ft@nessie.mcc.ac.uk)
                             _/

    Power is like a drug, it is beautiful.
     * Servalan (to Tarrant)  [Sand] 

On patrick.net

Veritas:

You asked for some constructive advice on escaping the American spend flow.

This really amounts to having good habits...and it seems for me at least that you can develop habits either from fear (that you'll go broke) or desire (some goal you really want achieve).  And you either get this by going through this fear/desire yourself or by seeing a hero do it (depression-era grandparent).

But today, look at fear and desire.  There is no fear.  My grandparents were not sure we'd win WW2.  Who threatens us today?  Sure we had 9/11 but there's no draft, and it seems no military can beat us - at least none that isn't connected to an economically-linked nation.  Who do you personally know that has ever gone hungry?  Who has had to quit school to support a family?  Today, who *can't* get a mortgage?  In short, there really is no fear motivator anymore...except the fear that you are missing out on the party.

And what about goals?  The goal is be a celebrity; to be relevant, wanted, in the limelight.  To be Carrie from 'Sex in the City'.  Who really wants to do something stupid like build a factory and watch product flow out?  That's what lowly people in China do.  That's where John Galt would find satisfaction save that he couldn't own property on which to build his gulch.  

*We* on the other hand you see are all about *style* and *ideas*.  Remember, *we* lead the world.  Kids truly think it makes sense to focus on being an NBA or rock star...I dunno, my High School had 2000 people, and I don't know of one of them that is famous today, but who took statistics in school?

So if you can live a pseudo-celebrity life by being a WalMart cashier (rather than manufacture the things you collect money for) with plenty of Taco Bell food to eat living with your parents, then why change?  As you said, why not take easy credit and treat yourself?

And the answer is, because 1) Life can be MUCH better than what strip mall living/MTV says it can be, and 2) you need an insurance policy against the pain if and when judgment day comes.

But if there is no fear of judgment day, and no burning desires beyond what you already can attain, then I hate to say it, but I think it's probably hopeless to try and change.

And who knows...maybe you're right and this is a New Paradigm and I'm missing it.  Maybe I'm an idiot for hoarding cash for the day when I can cashflow a property.  Maybe we can run a indefinitely country on style.  Maybe the rest of the world is happy to be nice to us in all sorts of way because we're piggies at their trough.  Maybe engineering and production is now as passe as agriculture.  Maybe the Government will bail out a crashed property market, and I'll end up footing the bill AND losing out on a market that never drops.

But you see, I'm hopelessly stuck with my attitude as you are with yours.

-- MattWalsh - 27 Mar 2002